Bitcoin is projected to exceed its all-time high of $109,000 sooner than expected, despite the current volatility in the US macroeconomic environment, according to Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision. He believes the market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could rebound, potentially reaching new highs before the end of the second quarter, regardless of uncertainty surrounding tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump or concerns about a recession.
### Impact of Trump's Tariffs on Bitcoin's Downtrend
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $100,000 on February 2, a decline many analysts attribute to Trump's recent tariffs and existing uncertainty surrounding US interest rates. Coutts's bullish outlook is underpinned by several factors, including easing financial conditions, a weakening US dollar, and increased liquidity from the People's Bank of China since early 2025. He noted, "Financial conditions have eased dramatically, evidenced by the US dollar’s significant decline and drops in rates and Treasury bond volatility," adding that liquidity is crucial for investing across all asset classes.
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin is trading at $85,880, reflecting a 3.16% decrease over the past month. Coutts mentioned that recent trends in the US Dollar Index (DXY) make it difficult to maintain a bearish outlook on Bitcoin. By June 1, he forecasts Bitcoin could range from a worst-case scenario of $102,000 to a best-case of $123,000, the latter representing a 13% increase from its previous all-time high.
Robbie Mitchnick, the head of digital assets at BlackRock, has also commented that Bitcoin is likely to flourish in a recessionary environment and that whether a recession occurs or not, it would act as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin is navigating through what CryptoQuant refers to as its "least bullish conditions" since January 2023, with the Bull Score Index at a low of 20, signaling potential market weakness. Historical data suggests that if this index remains below 40 for an extended period, it could lead to continued bearish conditions.
This situation raises the stakes as the market awaits developments that could impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.
*This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments involve risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making financial decisions.*
Bitcoin is projected to surpass its all-time high of $109,000 sooner than anticipated, despite the ongoing volatility in the US macroeconomic landscape, according to Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision. He noted that the market may be underestimating the speed at which Bitcoin could rebound, potentially reaching new highs before the end of the second quarter. This prediction holds regardless of uncertainties surrounding US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump or concerns over a looming recession.
Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on Bitcoin’s Downtrend
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $100,000 on February 2, with many analysts attributing this decline to Trump’s new tariffs and prevailing uncertainties regarding US interest rates.
Coutts' optimistic forecast is based on several factors, including easing financial conditions, a weakening US dollar, and increased liquidity from the People's Bank of China since early 2025. He commented, "Financial conditions have eased dramatically, evidenced by the US dollar’s significant decline and drops in rates and Treasury bond volatility." He emphasized that liquidity remains crucial for investing across all asset classes.
Bitcoin is down 3.16% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $85,880, representing a 3.16% drop over the previous month. Coutts highlighted his analysis in a recent post where he mentioned that given the US Dollar Index's (DXY) recent trends, it is challenging to adopt a bearish stance on Bitcoin.
He forecasts that by June 1, Bitcoin could range from a worst-case scenario of $102,000 to a best-case of $123,000, with the latter representing a 13% increase from its current all-time high.
Source: Jamie Coutts
Robbie Mitchnick, the head of digital assets at BlackRock, also remarked that Bitcoin could benefit from a recessionary environment, stating that whether or not a recession occurs, it would be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin.
As Bitcoin continues to navigate through what is described as its "least bullish conditions" since January 2023, according to CryptoQuant, the Bull Score Index sits at a low of 20, indicating potential weakness in the market for a strong rally. Historical data suggests if this index remains below 40 for an extended period, it could reflect continuing bearish conditions similar to previous downturn phases.
Related: $16.5B in Bitcoin options expire on Friday — Will BTC price soar above $90K?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions.
